Dan Dumezich, who many considered the unannounced front-runner in the race against Sen. Evan Bayh, has decided not to run for the Senate.  As recently as Saturday at a Republican breakfast in Northwest Indiana, Dumezich reported having millions in fundraising commitments ahead of an official announcement.

This leaves the race with three candidates:  State Sen. Marlin Stutzman, Richmond businessman Don Bates, Jr., and Richard “the plumber” Behney, owner of Atta Boy plumbing in Fishers.

Since today is the federal campaign finance filing deadline for the third quarter, we should start hearing the latest fundraising figures from our federal candidates, including this race.  Expect Stutzman to be in the lead.

Money is important but the real key right now is organization.  Before candidates can run for anything they need to get on the ballot and that takes people on the ground collecting signatures.  Stutzman has been traveling the state for months now and is off to a great start on this effort.

Many candidates underestimate the organization and time that it takes to collect 500 signatures per congressional district.  Until you’ve stood outside a Wal-Mart or at a bus stop collecting signatures to get your guy on the ballot, you probably can’t understand how difficult it actually is.  In reality, you don’t need 500 signatures, you need more like 750 to make sure that duplicates and incorrect registrations don’t knock you out of the race before it even starts.

Looking at the three candidates running today, Stutzman is the obvious front-runner.